Round 1
Sep 25, 2025 Gambling Results
What actually dropped from my Enlisted boxes: silver in against silver out, the real rate against the game rate and every gambling with its rewards.
The game rates come from community data (as of Apr 22, 2026) and are not officially confirmed.
Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
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Gambling Statistics: Air Support Every box is a random draw. This shows how often a category drops according to the game and how often it really dropped for me.
Method: every box counts as an independent random draw with the category's game rate. From the number of boxes and the rate, the exact binomial distribution gives how likely a result like this or a more extreme one is (two-sided). The normal range is the middle 95 % of all possible results. The verdict follows the two-sided probability: from 20 % within the normal range, 5 to 20 % slightly above or below average, 1 to 5 % lucky or unlucky, below 1 % very lucky or very unlucky; a verdict needs at least 50 boxes. For silver, more than expected is bad luck because silver is the weakest drop of a box. Appearance orders count 10 and callsign orders 5 per drop. The probability in the sentence of each row is one-sided (only the direction named there), so it is roughly half of the two-sided value the verdict uses.
Multiple-testing note: with 15 groups about 0.75 chance hits with a probability below 5 % are to be expected. A single "lucky" or "unlucky" is therefore no proof that something is off with the rates.
1
Gamblings
76
Boxes
380,000
Silver invested
84,000
Silver back
-77.9 %
ROI (silver)
Silver in against silver out, not a promise of profit. Gold is not included.
All gamblings together: 43 Gamblings · 1,036 Boxes · 5,180,000 Silver invested · 1,079,000 Silver back
Squads · Too little data
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 1 % game rate = 0.8 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Too little data: a verdict needs at least 50 boxes and 1 expected drops.
?Squads
Unique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 4 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 76 = 5.26 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 39 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Unique Soldiers
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 80 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Weapons
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 1.1 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Old BP weapons
New BP weapons · Too little data
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 0.4 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Too little data: a verdict needs at least 50 boxes and 1 expected drops.
?New BP weapons
Vehicles · As expected
Drops: 0 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 0 / 76 = 0.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 43 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicles
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 90 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Vehicle upgrade orders
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Weapon upgrade orders
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 9 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 9 % game rate = 6.8 drops.
Real rate: 9 / 76 = 11.8 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 12 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 49 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Soldier level-up orders
Vehicle decorators · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 86 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicle decorators
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Portraits
Vehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Vehicle camouflages
Nickname decorators · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Nickname decorators
Callsign orders · As expected
Drops: 6 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 5 % game rate = 3.8 drops.
Real rate: 6 / 76 = 7.89 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 36 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Callsign orders
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 10 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 15 % game rate = 11.4 drops.
Real rate: 10 / 76 = 13.2 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 6 to 18 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 80 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Appearance orders
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 50 %
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 75 %
XP booster 100 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 100 %
Silver · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 20.1 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 13 to 28 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 35 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
Silver
-
Squads
Squads · Too little data
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 1 % game rate = 0.8 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Too little data: a verdict needs at least 50 boxes and 1 expected drops.
? -
Unique Soldiers
Unique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 4 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 76 = 5.26 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 39 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Weapons
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 80 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Old BP weapons
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 1.1 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
New BP weapons
New BP weapons · Too little data
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 0.4 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Too little data: a verdict needs at least 50 boxes and 1 expected drops.
? -
Vehicles
Vehicles · As expected
Drops: 0 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 0 / 76 = 0.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 43 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Vehicle upgrade orders
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 90 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Weapon upgrade orders
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Soldier level-up orders
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 9 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 9 % game rate = 6.8 drops.
Real rate: 9 / 76 = 11.8 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 12 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 49 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Vehicle decorators
Vehicle decorators · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 86 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Portraits
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Vehicle camouflages
Vehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Nickname decorators
Nickname decorators · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Callsign orders
Callsign orders · As expected
Drops: 6 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 5 % game rate = 3.8 drops.
Real rate: 6 / 76 = 7.89 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 36 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Appearance orders
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 10 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 15 % game rate = 11.4 drops.
Real rate: 10 / 76 = 13.2 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 6 to 18 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 80 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
XP booster 50 %
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
XP booster 75 %
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
XP booster 100 %
XP booster 100 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Silver
Silver · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 20.1 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 13 to 28 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 35 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
Unlocked through gambling Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
Squads · 2 items
All in the catalogue →Soldiers · 4 items
All in the catalogue →Gamblings by box
Air Support
1 Gamblings · 76 Boxes · Invested 380,000 · Silver back 84,000
Round 1
Sep 25, 2025