One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
Squads · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 1 % game rate = 0.8 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 35 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Unique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 4 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 76 = 5.26 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 39 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 80 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 1.1 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
New BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 0.4 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 2 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 63 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 90 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 3 % game rate = 2.3 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 76 = 2.63 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 9 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 9 % game rate = 6.8 drops.
Real rate: 9 / 76 = 11.8 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 12 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 49 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Vehicle decorators · As expected
Drops: 1 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 76 = 1.32 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 86 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 3 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 1.9 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 76 = 3.95 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Callsign orders · As expected
Drops: 6 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 5 % game rate = 3.8 drops.
Real rate: 6 / 76 = 7.89 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 36 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 10 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 15 % game rate = 11.4 drops.
Real rate: 10 / 76 = 13.2 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 6 to 18 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 80 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 17.9 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 11 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 73 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Silver · As expected
Drops: 16 in 76 boxes.
Expected: 76 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 20.1 drops.
Real rate: 16 / 76 = 21.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 13 to 28 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 35 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
NEW
NEW
NEW