Round 1 · Forest Cache
- Boxes
- 10
- Silver invested
- 50,000
- Silver back
- 34,000
- ROI (silver)
- -32.0 %
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
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WeaponsWeapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 3 % game rate = 0.3 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 2 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 53 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Vehicle upgrade ordersVehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 2 % game rate = 0.2 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 37 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Vehicle decoratorsVehicle decorators · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 0.3 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 45 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 75 %XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 2 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 2.4 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 10 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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SilverSilver · Unlucky
Drops: 5 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 2.7 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 10 = 50.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 19 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
