Round 14
Jan 3, 2026 Gambling Results
What actually dropped from my Enlisted boxes: silver in against silver out, the real rate against the game rate and every gambling with its rewards.
The game rates come from community data (as of Apr 22, 2026) and are not officially confirmed.
Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
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Gambling Statistics: Forest Cache Every box is a random draw. This shows how often a category drops according to the game and how often it really dropped for me.
Method: every box counts as an independent random draw with the category's game rate. From the number of boxes and the rate, the exact binomial distribution gives how likely a result like this or a more extreme one is (two-sided). The normal range is the middle 95 % of all possible results. The verdict follows the two-sided probability: from 20 % within the normal range, 5 to 20 % slightly above or below average, 1 to 5 % lucky or unlucky, below 1 % very lucky or very unlucky; a verdict needs at least 50 boxes. For silver, more than expected is bad luck because silver is the weakest drop of a box. Appearance orders count 10 and callsign orders 5 per drop. The probability in the sentence of each row is one-sided (only the direction named there), so it is roughly half of the two-sided value the verdict uses.
Multiple-testing note: with 15 groups about 0.75 chance hits with a probability below 5 % are to be expected. A single "lucky" or "unlucky" is therefore no proof that something is off with the rates.
14
Gamblings
200
Boxes
1,000,000
Silver invested
130,000
Silver back
-87.0 %
ROI (silver)
Silver in against silver out, not a promise of profit. Gold is not included.
All gamblings together: 43 Gamblings · 1,036 Boxes · 5,180,000 Silver invested · 1,079,000 Silver back
Squads · As expected
Drops: 1 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 1 % game rate = 2.0 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 200 = 0.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 81 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Squads
Unique Soldiers · Lucky
Drops: 11 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 3 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 200 = 5.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 8.0 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Unique Soldiers
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 5 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 3 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 200 = 2.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 89 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Weapons
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 3 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 3.0 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 200 = 1.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 7 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Old BP weapons
New BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 1.0 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 200 = 0.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
New BP weapons
Vehicles · As expected
Drops: 4 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2 % game rate = 4.0 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 200 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicles
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 4 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2 % game rate = 4.0 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 200 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Vehicle upgrade orders
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 9 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 3 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 9 / 200 = 4.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 30 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Weapon upgrade orders
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 15 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 9 % game rate = 18.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 200 = 7.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 26 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 55 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Soldier level-up orders
Vehicle decorators · As expected
Drops: 7 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 7 / 200 = 3.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 47 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicle decorators
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 2 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 200 = 1.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 24 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Portraits
Vehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 2 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 200 = 1.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 24 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Vehicle camouflages
Nickname decorators · As expected
Drops: 2 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 200 = 1.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 24 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Nickname decorators
Callsign orders · As expected
Drops: 11 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 5 % game rate = 10.0 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 200 = 5.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 4 to 16 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 83 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Callsign orders
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 24 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 15 % game rate = 30.0 drops.
Real rate: 24 / 200 = 12.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 20 to 40 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 27 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Appearance orders
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 54 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 47.0 drops.
Real rate: 54 / 200 = 27.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 36 to 59 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 50 %
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 54 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 47.0 drops.
Real rate: 54 / 200 = 27.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 36 to 59 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 75 %
XP booster 100 % · As expected
Drops: 54 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 47.0 drops.
Real rate: 54 / 200 = 27.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 36 to 59 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 100 %
Silver · As expected
Drops: 49 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 53.0 drops.
Real rate: 49 / 200 = 24.5 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 41 to 65 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 58 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
Silver
-
Squads
Squads · As expected
Drops: 1 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 1 % game rate = 2.0 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 200 = 0.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 81 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Unique Soldiers
Unique Soldiers · Lucky
Drops: 11 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 3 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 200 = 5.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 8.0 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Weapons
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 5 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 3 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 200 = 2.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 89 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Old BP weapons
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 3 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 3.0 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 200 = 1.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 7 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
New BP weapons
New BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 1.0 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 200 = 0.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Vehicles
Vehicles · As expected
Drops: 4 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2 % game rate = 4.0 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 200 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Vehicle upgrade orders
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 4 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2 % game rate = 4.0 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 200 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 8 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Weapon upgrade orders
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 9 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 3 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 9 / 200 = 4.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 30 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Soldier level-up orders
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 15 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 9 % game rate = 18.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 200 = 7.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 26 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 55 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Vehicle decorators
Vehicle decorators · As expected
Drops: 7 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 7 / 200 = 3.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 47 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
-
Portraits
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 2 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 200 = 1.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 24 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Vehicle camouflages
Vehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 2 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 200 = 1.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 24 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Nickname decorators
Nickname decorators · As expected
Drops: 2 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 5.0 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 200 = 1.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 10 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 24 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Callsign orders
Callsign orders · As expected
Drops: 11 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 5 % game rate = 10.0 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 200 = 5.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 4 to 16 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 83 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
Appearance orders
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 24 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 15 % game rate = 30.0 drops.
Real rate: 24 / 200 = 12.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 20 to 40 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 27 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
-
XP booster 50 %
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 54 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 47.0 drops.
Real rate: 54 / 200 = 27.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 36 to 59 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
XP booster 75 %
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 54 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 47.0 drops.
Real rate: 54 / 200 = 27.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 36 to 59 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
XP booster 100 %
XP booster 100 % · As expected
Drops: 54 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 47.0 drops.
Real rate: 54 / 200 = 27.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 36 to 59 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
-
Silver
Silver · As expected
Drops: 49 in 200 boxes.
Expected: 200 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 53.0 drops.
Real rate: 49 / 200 = 24.5 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 41 to 65 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 58 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
Unlocked through gambling Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
Squads · 1 items
All in the catalogue →Soldiers · 11 items
All in the catalogue →
II
Hans Jaschker
Unique soldier
III
Herman Ponchert
Unique soldier
II
Theodor Beckmann
Unique soldier 
II
Ivan Klimanov
Unique soldier
II
Pavel Likhanov
Unique soldier
II
Sergey Zimin
Unique soldier
II
Vasily Arkhipov
Unique soldier
II
Victor Zavalin
Unique soldier
Viktor Karandakov
Unique soldier 
I
Rolland McCreed
Unique soldier
III
Wilburn Ross
Unique soldier
Hans Jaschker
Machine Gunner II
Herman Ponchert
Rifleman III
Theodor Beckmann
Fighter pilot II
Ivan Klimanov
Fighter pilot II
Pavel Likhanov
Machine Gunner II
Sergey Zimin
Machine Gunner II
Vasily Arkhipov
Machine Gunner II
Victor Zavalin
Flametrooper II
Viktor Karandakov
Radio operator
Rolland McCreed
Tanker I
Wilburn Ross
Rifleman III
Gamblings by box
Forest Cache
14 Gamblings · 200 Boxes · Invested 1,000,000 · Silver back 130,000
Round 14
Jan 3, 2026 
Round 13
Jan 3, 2026 
Round 12
Dec 31, 2025 
Round 11
Dec 31, 2025 
Round 10
Dec 31, 2025 
Round 9
Dec 31, 2025 
Round 8
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 7
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 6
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 5
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 4
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 3
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 2
Dec 30, 2025 
Round 1
Dec 30, 2025