Round 5 · Forest Cache
- Boxes
- 10
- Silver invested
- 50,000
- Silver back
- 4,500
- ROI (silver)
- -91.0 %
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
-
Old BP weaponsOld BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 0.2 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 28 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
-
Vehicle upgrade ordersVehicle upgrade orders · Lucky
Drops: 2 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 2 % game rate = 0.2 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 10 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 3.2 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
-
Soldier level-up ordersSoldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 9 % game rate = 0.9 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
-
Appearance ordersAppearance orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 15 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 10 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 91 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
-
XP booster 75 %XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 2.4 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 56 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
-
SilverSilver · As expected
Drops: 3 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 2.7 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 10 = 30.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
