Round 1 · Saboteurs Stash
- Boxes
- 40
- Silver invested
- 200,000
- Silver back
- 10,500
- ROI (silver)
- -94.8 %
The silver value of this round does not match the drops and is being checked.
Timestamps
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
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New BP weaponsNew BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 0.2 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 40 = 2.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 36 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Weapon upgrade ordersWeapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 3 % game rate = 1.2 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 40 = 2.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Soldier level-up ordersSoldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 9 % game rate = 3.6 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 40 = 2.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 7 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 23 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Appearance ordersAppearance orders · As expected
Drops: 3 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 15 % game rate = 6.0 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 40 = 7.50 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 11 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 26 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 50 %XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 8 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 9.4 drops.
Real rate: 8 / 40 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 4 to 15 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 76 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 75 %XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 8 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 9.4 drops.
Real rate: 8 / 40 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 4 to 15 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 76 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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SilverSilver · Very unlucky
Drops: 26 in 40 boxes.
Expected: 40 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 10.6 drops.
Real rate: 26 / 40 = 65.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 5 to 16 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): < 0.01 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
