Round 24
Oct 13, 2026 What actually dropped from my Enlisted boxes: silver in against silver out, the real rate against the game rate and every gambling with its rewards.
The game rates come from community data (as of Apr 22, 2026) and are not officially confirmed.
Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
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Every box is a random draw. This shows how often a category drops according to the game and how often it really dropped for me.
Method: every box counts as an independent random draw with the category's game rate. From the number of boxes and the rate, the exact binomial distribution gives how likely a result like this or a more extreme one is (two-sided). The normal range is the middle 95 % of all possible results. The verdict follows the two-sided probability: from 20 % within the normal range, 5 to 20 % slightly above or below average, 1 to 5 % lucky or unlucky, below 1 % very lucky or very unlucky; a verdict needs at least 50 boxes. For silver, more than expected is bad luck because silver is the weakest drop of a box. Appearance orders count 10 and callsign orders 5 per drop. The probability in the sentence of each row is one-sided (only the direction named there), so it is roughly half of the two-sided value the verdict uses.
Multiple-testing note: with 15 groups about 0.75 chance hits with a probability below 5 % are to be expected. A single "lucky" or "unlucky" is therefore no proof that something is off with the rates.
Included: rounds with a conspicuous silver value (marked on the round), count: 1. They count in all numbers.
Silver in against silver out, not a promise of profit. Gold is not included.
All gamblings together: 43 Gamblings · 1,036 Boxes · 5,180,000 Silver invested · 1,079,000 Silver back
Squads · Unlucky
Drops: 3 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 1 % game rate = 6.8 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 680 = 0.44 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 12 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 18 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Unique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 23 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 3 % game rate = 20.4 drops.
Real rate: 23 / 680 = 3.38 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 12 to 30 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 62 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 3 % game rate = 20.4 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 12 to 30 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 27 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 6 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 10.2 drops.
Real rate: 6 / 680 = 0.88 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 5 to 17 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 23 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
New BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 5 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 3.4 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 680 = 0.74 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 7 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 51 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicles · As expected
Drops: 11 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2 % game rate = 13.6 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 680 = 1.62 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 7 to 21 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 12 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2 % game rate = 13.6 drops.
Real rate: 12 / 680 = 1.76 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 7 to 21 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 79 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 23 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 3 % game rate = 20.4 drops.
Real rate: 23 / 680 = 3.38 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 12 to 30 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 62 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 56 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 9 % game rate = 61.2 drops.
Real rate: 56 / 680 = 8.24 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 47 to 76 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 54 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Vehicle decorators · Unlucky
Drops: 11 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 680 = 1.62 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 16 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 74 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Vehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 74 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Nickname decorators · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 74 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Callsign orders · Lucky
Drops: 42 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 5 % game rate = 34.0 drops.
Real rate: 42 / 680 = 6.18 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 23 to 46 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 19 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 90 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 15 % game rate = 102.0 drops.
Real rate: 90 / 680 = 13.2 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 84 to 121 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 21 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 170 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 159.8 drops.
Real rate: 170 / 680 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 138 to 182 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 170 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 159.8 drops.
Real rate: 170 / 680 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 138 to 182 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 100 % · As expected
Drops: 170 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 159.8 drops.
Real rate: 170 / 680 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 138 to 182 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Silver · Unlucky
Drops: 198 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 180.2 drops.
Real rate: 198 / 680 = 29.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 158 to 203 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 13 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
Squads · Unlucky
Drops: 3 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 1 % game rate = 6.8 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 680 = 0.44 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 12 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 18 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Unique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 23 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 3 % game rate = 20.4 drops.
Real rate: 23 / 680 = 3.38 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 12 to 30 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 62 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Weapons · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 3 % game rate = 20.4 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 12 to 30 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 27 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Old BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 6 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 1.5 % game rate = 10.2 drops.
Real rate: 6 / 680 = 0.88 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 5 to 17 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 23 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
New BP weapons · As expected
Drops: 5 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 0.5 % game rate = 3.4 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 680 = 0.74 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 7 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 51 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicles · As expected
Drops: 11 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2 % game rate = 13.6 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 680 = 1.62 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 7 to 21 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 59 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Vehicle upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 12 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2 % game rate = 13.6 drops.
Real rate: 12 / 680 = 1.76 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 7 to 21 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 79 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Weapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 23 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 3 % game rate = 20.4 drops.
Real rate: 23 / 680 = 3.38 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 12 to 30 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 62 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Soldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 56 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 9 % game rate = 61.2 drops.
Real rate: 56 / 680 = 8.24 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 47 to 76 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 54 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Vehicle decorators · Unlucky
Drops: 11 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 11 / 680 = 1.62 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 16 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
Portraits · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 74 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Vehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 74 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Nickname decorators · As expected
Drops: 15 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 17.0 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 680 = 2.21 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 10 to 25 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 74 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Callsign orders · Lucky
Drops: 42 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 5 % game rate = 34.0 drops.
Real rate: 42 / 680 = 6.18 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 23 to 46 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 19 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
Appearance orders · As expected
Drops: 90 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 15 % game rate = 102.0 drops.
Real rate: 90 / 680 = 13.2 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 84 to 121 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 21 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 170 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 159.8 drops.
Real rate: 170 / 680 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 138 to 182 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 170 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 159.8 drops.
Real rate: 170 / 680 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 138 to 182 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
XP booster 100 % · As expected
Drops: 170 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 159.8 drops.
Real rate: 170 / 680 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 138 to 182 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
Silver · Unlucky
Drops: 198 in 680 boxes.
Expected: 680 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 180.2 drops.
Real rate: 198 / 680 = 29.1 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 158 to 203 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 13 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
2×
24 Gamblings · 680 Boxes · Invested 3,400,000 · Silver back 755,000
Round 24
Oct 13, 2026
Round 23
Oct 13, 2026
Round 22
Oct 12, 2026
Round 21
Oct 12, 2026
Round 20
Oct 9, 2026
Round 19
Oct 9, 2026
Round 18
Oct 8, 2026
Round 17
Oct 8, 2026
Round 16
Oct 7, 2026
Round 15
Oct 7, 2026
Round 14
Oct 6, 2026
Round 13
Oct 6, 2026
Round 12
Oct 5, 2026
Round 11
Oct 5, 2026
Round 10
Oct 4, 2026
Round 9
Oct 4, 2026
Round 8
Oct 3, 2026
Round 7
Oct 3, 2026
Round 6
Oct 2, 2026
Round 5
Oct 2, 2026
Round 4
Oct 1, 2026
Round 3
Oct 1, 2026
Round 2
Sep 30, 2026
Round 1
Sep 30, 2026 The silver value of this round does not match the drops and is being checked.