Round 11 · Forest Cache
- Boxes
- 20
- Silver invested
- 100,000
- Silver back
- 18,000
- ROI (silver)
- -82.0 %
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
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WeaponsWeapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 3 % game rate = 0.6 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 20 = 5.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 2 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 91 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Soldier level-up ordersSoldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 9 % game rate = 1.8 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 20 = 5.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 90 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Callsign ordersCallsign orders · Lucky
Drops: 4 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 5 % game rate = 1.0 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 20 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 3.2 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Appearance ordersAppearance orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 15 % game rate = 3.0 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 20 = 5.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 35 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 50 %XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 5 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 4.7 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 20 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 9 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 75 %XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 5 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 4.7 drops.
Real rate: 5 / 20 = 25.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 9 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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SilverSilver · As expected
Drops: 8 in 20 boxes.
Expected: 20 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 5.3 drops.
Real rate: 8 / 20 = 40.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 2 to 9 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 27 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
