Round 3 · Forest Cache
- Boxes
- 10
- Silver invested
- 50,000
- Silver back
- 2,500
- ROI (silver)
- -95.0 %
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
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Unique SoldiersUnique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 3 % game rate = 0.3 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 2 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 53 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Soldier level-up ordersSoldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 9 % game rate = 0.9 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Vehicle decoratorsVehicle decorators · Lucky
Drops: 2 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 0.3 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 10 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 4.9 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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PortraitsPortraits · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 0.3 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 45 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Appearance ordersAppearance orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 15 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 50 %XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 3 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 2.4 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 10 = 30.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 86 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 75 %XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 3 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 2.4 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 10 = 30.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 86 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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SilverSilver · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 2.7 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 42 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
