Round 1 · Scorched Chest
- Boxes
- 50
- Silver invested
- 250,000
- Silver back
- 88,000
- ROI (silver)
- -64.8 %
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
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Unique SoldiersUnique Soldiers · As expected
Drops: 1 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 3 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 50 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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WeaponsWeapons · As expected
Drops: 1 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 3 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 50 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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VehiclesVehicles · As expected
Drops: 1 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 2 % game rate = 1.0 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 50 = 2.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Weapon upgrade ordersWeapon upgrade orders · As expected
Drops: 3 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 3 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 50 = 6.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 38 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Soldier level-up ordersSoldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 7 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 9 % game rate = 4.5 drops.
Real rate: 7 / 50 = 14.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 1 to 9 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 32 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Callsign ordersCallsign orders · As expected
Drops: 2 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 5 % game rate = 2.5 drops.
Real rate: 2 / 50 = 4.00 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Appearance ordersAppearance orders · As expected
Drops: 10 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 15 % game rate = 7.5 drops.
Real rate: 10 / 50 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 3 to 13 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 42 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 50 %XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 10 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 11.8 drops.
Real rate: 10 / 50 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 6 to 18 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 70 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 75 %XP booster 75 % · As expected
Drops: 10 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 11.8 drops.
Real rate: 10 / 50 = 20.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 6 to 18 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 70 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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SilverSilver · As expected
Drops: 15 in 50 boxes.
Expected: 50 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 13.3 drops.
Real rate: 15 / 50 = 30.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 7 to 20 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 67 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
