Round 4 · Scorched Chest
- Boxes
- 10
- Silver invested
- 50,000
- Silver back
- 2,500
- ROI (silver)
- -95.0 %
Drawn items One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Expected = boxes times game rate. A single round is too small for a verdict; the evaluation over all gamblings is on the results page.
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Soldier level-up ordersSoldier level-up orders · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 9 % game rate = 0.9 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 3 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): > 99.99 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Vehicle camouflagesVehicle camouflages · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 2.5 % game rate = 0.3 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 1 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 45 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "Cosmetics (portrait, nickname, camouflage)" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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Appearance ordersAppearance orders · Lucky
Drops: 4 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 15 % game rate = 1.5 drops.
Real rate: 4 / 10 = 40.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 4 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 10.0 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows all orders received; the thumb is based on how often this kind of order dropped.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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XP booster 50 %XP booster 50 % · As expected
Drops: 3 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 23.5 % game rate = 2.4 drops.
Real rate: 3 / 10 = 30.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 5 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 86 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The game rates do not split "XP boosters" up, so the thumb covers the whole group.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
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SilverSilver · As expected
Drops: 1 in 10 boxes.
Expected: 10 boxes × 26.5 % game rate = 2.7 drops.
Real rate: 1 / 10 = 10.0 %.
Normal range (middle 95 %): 0 to 6 drops.
Chance of a result at least this far from the expectation (exact binomial test, two-sided): 42 %.
Thumb: from 20 % normal; 1 to 20 % one step lucky or unlucky; under 1 % two steps.
The number shows the silver won; the thumb is based on how often silver dropped.
Silver counts inverted: more silver is the worst result of a box.
One single round is a small sample, so the thumb is only a hint. The evaluation of all gamblings is on the results page.
Special rewards Ownership marks (NEW, duplicate) are derived from my published gamblings, not from my save game.
No special rewards in this round.